The Week ISM Chair Steve Miller Changed the Inflation Narrative.

Markets came into the week hoping inflation relief was finally close. CPI cooled, retail sales stayed resilient, housing data surprised to the upside, and equities kept grinding higher.

Then ISM Chair Steve Miller delivered the statement that changed the entire macro picture:

“Prices will stay elevated for several more months even if the war ends tomorrow because the petroleum cost shock is already flowing through supply chains.”

That one sentence matters more than almost every headline this week.

Why? Because Miller isn’t a politician or TV analyst. He’s the ISM Chair speaking directly from purchasing manager data across the U.S. economy. When he says inflation pressures are embedded into the system, markets listen.

The key takeaway: even if geopolitical tensions ease tomorrow, the inflation wave is already moving through global supply chains. The war ending may stop inflation from getting worse but it does NOT immediately reverse the damage already done.

Meanwhile, ISM Prices held at 70.7% for a second consecutive month with a 17 month streak above 60, historically extreme levels that resemble the early stages of the 2021 2022 inflation surge.

This episode breaks down why traders may be underestimating sticky inflation risks, how tariffs and energy costs are reshaping market expectations, why bond markets are reacting the way they are, and what all of this means for Fed rate cuts going forward.

0:00 Introduction to Weekly Market Recap
0:29 Trump’s Greenland Tariffs Explained
3:03 10 Year Treasury Auction Results
3:39 CPI & Core CPI Data Breakdown
5:09 New Home Sales Beat Expectations
6:40 30 Year Bond Auction Analysis
7:00 Trump Speech & Trade War Implications
8:00 Producer Price Index (PPI) Data
8:47 Retail Sales Rebound Explained
10:18 Producer Prices Continue Cooling
11:24 Existing Home Sales & Crude Oil Inventories
13:10 UK GDP Rebounds from Contraction
14:11 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Massive Beat
15:07 Initial Jobless Claims & Labor Market Strength
16:07 German CPI Holds Flat ECB Outlook
16:47 Big Picture Analysis for Traders

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